Monday, February 06, 2012

Deja vu all over again

1.  What a game. Fun stuff. It's always amazing to me how close the odds-makers pick the spreads, even on the prop bets. Just an example -- the over/under on Kelly Clarkson's rendition of the National Anthem was 1:34 and she came in at 1:34 exactly.

2.  Best ad of the game:

3. In the other big game over the weekend, the Canes beat Duke in NC for the first time. Bubble team right now...

4. Closer to home, there is a debate about the word "Gypsie":
A Fort Lauderdale family of accused psychic swindlers has come under fire for allegedly conning clients out of $40 million, but one defense attorney in the case says the fortune-telling business isn’t the only thing on trial — the family’s ethnic heritage, too, has become a target. At issue: the word “gypsy,” which has been mentioned several times in the case against the Marks clan, a three-generation psychic family of Romanian Gypsy descent. Defense attorney Fred Schwartz says the word constitutes a slur, and is comparable to the N-word being leveled at African-Americans. “The connotation of the word ‘gypsy’ is a group of wandering people who go from city to city committing crimes,” said Schwartz, who accuses prosecutors of employing the word as a “tactical advantage” that will make the Marks family seem guilty. The case is expected to go to trial later this year. ***

Hogwash, say prosecutors, who insist there’s nothing inherently derogatory about saying gypsy. In court filings, Assistant U.S. Attorney Laurence Bardfeld said all the G-word hoopla amounts to nothing more than a defense team “trying to ‘muddy up the waters’ in an attempt to discredit the government.” Bardfeld noted that defense attorneys, too, had used the disputed word in open court, and he even cited several dictionary definitions of the word as further proof of its inoffensiveness. From the Oxford English Dictionary: “A member of a wandering race (by themselves called Romany), of Hindu origin, which first appeared in England beginning of the 16th [century] and was then believed to have come from Egypt.” Lastly, Bardfeld singled out one of the family members on trial, Ricky Marks. Marks has posted several family videos on YouTube in which he uses the word gypsy, including a “Gypsy Super Bowl Trip” video that also showcases the family’s collection of luxury cars — the fruits of their lucrative psychic enterprise.
5.  Yes, Rumpole, Justice Scalia even says he is "defendant-friendly."

6.  And from my favorite item of the weekend, the inmates in Vermont are pretty funny:
Prison inmates who make decals for the Vermont State Police slipped a pig into the official seal, and up to 30 patrol cars wound up sporting the subliminal epithet, the Burlington Free Press tells us. The police emblem features a cow, an evergreen tree and snowy mountains (along with three unidentifiable creatures). Back in 2008, an inmate artist at the Northwest State Correctional Facility went into the computer file and modified one of the cow's spots to resemble a pig, the common derogatory term for police, Vermont Corrections Commissioner Andy Pallito told the Free Press, like USA TODAY a Gannett paper. In 2009, the state police ordered 16-inch door decals. Pallito said he believes 60 altered decals were made. Some new cruisers have two, while older cars may have just one if a door was replaced. New decals, costing $780, are expected Monday. State officials learned of the prank Thursday. They blamed quality control at the Vermont Correctional Industries Print Shop in St. Alban. Prison authorities are trying to identify the inmate behind the Rorschach test.

9 comments:

Rumpole said...

What game were you watching? First the odds makers didn't come close. They had the cheaters favored by three. The Giants won by four meaning the odds makers blew it by seven. Second- super bowl X was an exciting 21-17 game. Steelers over Cowboys. This one was boring until the 4 th quarter. BTW- Little Wes Welker dropped the game winning pass. Enough about how great he and brady are.

When defensive genius Belichick closes his eyes at night does he have nightmares about Eli. Can't stop him. Can't beat him. Now Mr wonderful is a mediocre 3-2 in the big game, riding an 0-2 streak. Maybe he can't win the big one without knowing the other teams plays before hand. He hasn't won a super bowl without cheating.

Just don't ever compare Belichick to Shula or Noll or Landry again.

David Oscar Markus said...

I disagree. The Pats were up 2 with a minute to play and then were driving to go up 3. I think the spread was right on. Of course, the spread on the game is the one bet that is least determined by the books, and mostly determined by betting as the number changes by how people are betting...

David Oscar Markus said...

And, of course, if Welker makes that catch, the game is all but over with the Pats winning by 2. That was Welker's first drop this season of a pass more than 10 yards. He only had 5 drops along with his over 120 catches. Insane.

Rumpole said...

Why don't you just place all your bets with me in future. With reasoning like that I can buy a new boat.

Anonymous said...

Rumphole you do understand that the Vegas line is not meant to be the actual prediction of who will win and by how much, right? The purpose of the Vegas line is to equalize betting on both sides.

Anonymous said...

I wonder if the prosecutor would also show a tape of a Chris Rock performance as proof that the N-word is not offensive to African-Americans. Maybe he can crank some Cher during closing arguments.

Rumpole said...

1:24 PM: Longtime and careful readers of my popular blog know that we have had a close friendship as well as professional relationship with a person who for many years set the lines for one of the largest independent sport books in Nevada. Currently 52nd Street Irwin is a guest of the federal government for another 4-6 months, depending on if he is eligible for a half way house, but the point is we know more about setting lines and how books layoff bets to even the action they take than you and most anyone else.

What you don't know and what went over your simple minded parroting of how books make money is that the most vulnerable time for a book are the first few bets they take after they set the line. Why? Because the line is initially set by a person- and people make mistakes. Once the line is set, the theory is that the market place will drive it up or down as the book adjusts the line to reflect the action it gets.

But what you don't understand is that the line OPENED at Cheater/Chokers -3, and the Giants won the game by four. It matters little that they Giants scored late. Try cashing a bet on the Cheaters/Chokers and see what you get. Try telling the man that your team was up until the last 57 seconds. Nobody cares and it means nothing. Only the final score matters.

The initial line is set by a so called expert who is not reacting as much to what he perceives as popular sentiment (although some odds makers will make slight adjustments for popular teams) as to what he thinks the final score will be. Giants +3 two weeks ago was the very best bet we have seen all season. And it paid off in spades.

Anonymous said...

Wrong again. You cut and pasted from the wrong website. The expert sets the initial line as to equalize betting. The line then shifts to take into account the actual betting patterns. I'd stay stick with the law but we know better.

Rumpole said...

Sorry. I know what I am talking about. The initial line is set by a select few odds makers. Various sports books will use the same odds makers. The initial line reflects the odds maker's opinion. If you know so much tell me who Lefty M sets the lines for. You can't google his name, but everyone in the industry knows of him.