This is crazy. The Sentencing Commission released a sentencing tool called JSIN so that judges can see average sentences before making a decision. The problem -- the statistics exclude all sentences in which the judge did not impose incarceration. Michael Yeager discusses the flawed data in this article at Law360:
First, JSIN excludes all sentences for cooperating witnesses, meaning
cases in which the government filed and the court granted a Section
5K1.1 motion for a substantial assistance departure....
Second, JSIN includes mandatory minimum sentences, which by
definition are not examples of how judges have exercised discretion. In
fact, they're the opposite....
Third, and most important, JSIN excludes all nonimprisonment
sentences: not just nonimprisonment sentences due to a Section 5K1.1
motion, or application of Section 5K3.1's safety valve, but rather all
nonimprisonment. That is, all sentences that are probation only, fine
only, alternative confinement only (such as home confinement) or any
combination of those options that doesn't also include prison time.
At positions on the sentencing table where the range is zero to six
months, that means that JSIN is excluding sentences within the advisory
range. And even at many higher positions on the sentencing table, a
substantial portion of cases are nonimprisonment. Yet, JSIN excludes
all of them from its averages and medians.
The effect of these choices can be dramatic. When JSIN is queried for
stats on the position of the sentencing table for U.S. Sentencing
Commission Section 2T1.1 — tax evasion, offense level 17 and criminal
history I — JSIN reports the median sentence as 18 months. But when one
uses the commission's full dataset to calculate the median on that same
cohort (Section 2T1.1, level 17, history I, no 5K1.1) and includes
sentences of probation, the median is significantly lower. Instead of
JSIN's 18 months, the median is just 12 months. That's a whole six
months lower — and a 33% decrease....
[B]y conducting a more complete study of the Sentencing Commission's
data than the JSIN provides, the defense could also examine particular
aspects of a guidelines calculation, such as loss or drug weight. The
defense could strip out mandatory minimum sentences or do an analysis of
10 or 15 years of cases, not just five. They could also break down
cases by circuit or district, not just nationally. Now that JSIN is
available, defense attorneys should consider all the above. It was
already a good idea to use accurate and complete data analysis of
similarly situated defendants. But now the need has increased. The
defense now has to counter JSIN and the false impression it creates.