Will Dobbs lead to the undoing of other rights?

 We've all read Justice Thomas' concurrence in Dobbs by now and it's pretty frightening.  Not only is it way out of touch with our country, our society, and the world -- it threatens to put people in jail for basic things like obtaining contraception.  Hard to imagine...

David Lat wrote this piece at Esquire about whether this will actually happen.  Here's a snippet on why he thinks it won't:

Why isn’t there the same hunger on the right to ban, say, interracial or same-sex marriage that there is for banning abortion? As Justice Alito wrote in Dobbs, the critical difference between abortion and most other rights is that abortion destroys “potential life” or “the life of an ‘unborn human being.’” Or as pro-life advocate Karen Swallow Prior wrote in the New York Times on Friday, she and her fellow pro-lifers believe “that abortion unjustly ends the life of a being that is fully human”—which can’t be said of almost any other right.

In other words, while social conservatives might not view my marriage to another man as a real marriage, they don’t view me and my husband as murderers. In the eyes of social conservatives, abortion is uniquely evil—and Roe, by enshrining that perceived evil in constitutional law, is a uniquely bad decision. According to UC Berkeley law professor Orin Kerr in a thoughtful Twitter thread, “Within the conservative legal movement, Roe is thought to stand pretty much alone.”

For decades, Republican political candidates, including presidential candidates, ran on getting Roe overturned. For just as long, a slew of pro-life organizations devoted themselves to getting Roe overruled. I’m unaware of presidential candidates campaigning on reversing Obergefell v. Hodges, the 2015 decision that recognized the right to same-sex marriage, or of organizations trying to revisit Griswold v. Connecticut, the 1965 decision that recognized the right of married persons to buy and use contraception.

 More:

I think it’s unlikely. First, because Justice Thomas wrote this in a separate concurrence, not in the controlling opinion of the Court, it represents only the views—the academic ramblings, really—of Justice Thomas. He’s fond of floating esoteric or controversial legal theories in solo concurrences, joined by none of his colleagues. And most of the time, they go nowhere. If he actually wants to get these cases “reconsidered,” he’ll need four other votes, which he almost certainly doesn’t have.

Second, contrary to the claims of many commentators, Justice Thomas wasn’t actually arguing for getting rid of all legal protection for contraception, same-sex marriage, and similar rights. Rather, he was calling for reconsidering the legal doctrine called “substantive due process,” which claims that the Constitution’s protection of “due process” doesn’t just guarantee proper “process” (like a fair trial), but also certain “substantive” rights not mentioned in the Constitution (like abortion). Many legal conservatives loathe substantive due process because they believe it gives unelected judges too much power to make up new rights.

But as Justice Thomas explained in his concurrence, if the Court were to heed his call to ditch substantive due process, the question would then become “whether other constitutional provisions guarantee the myriad rights that our substantive due process cases have generated.” So various rights currently protected under substantive due process might still be protected by the “privileges or immunities” doctrine, mentioned by Justice Thomas, or other doctrines or provisions not mentioned by him, such as the Equal Protection Clause.

Third, even if a Supreme Court precedent protecting a certain right gets overruled, the right doesn’t go away overnight; it just gets decided by other institutions, usually state legislatures or the U.S. Congress. As Justice Brett Kavanaugh wrote in his own Dobbs concurrence, “the Court’s decision today does not outlaw abortion throughout the United States. On the contrary, the Court’s decision properly leaves the question of abortion for the people and their elected representatives in the democratic process.”

This is why I’m not as worried as many about the future implications of Dobbs, in terms of either Justice Alito’s opinion for the Court or Justice Thomas’s concurrence. Then again, I might be wrong—and it wouldn’t be the first time. In 2018 and again in 2021, I predicted that Roe would not be overruled. So much for that.

I just expressed skepticism toward Justice Thomas’s solo concurrences, which are often like the mutterings of your crazy uncle at Thanksgiving. You can safely ignore your crazy uncle—but you can’t ignore Justice Thomas, since every now and then, he turns out to be crazy prophetic.

In 1997, in a case called Printz v. United States, Justice Thomas wrote a solo concurrence suggesting that the Second Amendment protected an individual right to keep and bear arms. At the time, this was contrary to Supreme Court precedent, and his view was dismissed by many as kooky. But eleven years later, in D.C. v. Heller, Justice Thomas’s once-fringe view became the law of the land.

Then this past Thursday, in New York State Rifle & Pistol Association, Inc. v. Bruen, Justice Thomas wrote for the Court in extending the reasoning of Heller, which focused on keeping guns for self-defense at home, to the carrying of firearms in public. So sometimes Justice Thomas’s improbable theories wind up getting enshrined in law, even if it takes a few years. And the current Court is far more conservative than it was when it decided Printz, perhaps making Thomas a better barometer today of where the Court might go in the future.

To those worried about post-Dobbs America: don’t panic, but don’t let down your guard. Go out there and win some elections—which is the only way to bring change to the Court, and to the country.